Performance Snapshot

We do not claim to profit in every market phase. We care more about controlled drawdown, clean loss distribution, and staying usable when conditions are not ideal.

The current highlighted configuration is: v1.1.6-ic-candidate

This page shows a recent broker-aligned Standard Trend report on XAUUSD, using realistic tester conditions and a capital-preservation lens based on IC Markets MT5 data.

Core backtests shown here are run without the optional macro filter, so the underlying technical engine can be judged on its own merit. The macro overlay is evaluated separately in street tests, forward conditions, and future live validation.

Standard Trend Validation Report

  • Report Setup

    • Symbol: XAUUSD
    • Timeframe: M30
    • Period: January 1, 2025 to 2026 YTD
    • Mode: Standard Trend
    • Version Tag: v1.1.6-ic-candidate
    • Broker / Test Basis: IC Markets MT5
    • Modeling Quality: 99% real ticks
    • Initial Deposit: 10,000 USD
    • Risk Per Trade: 1%

  • Key Results

    • Total Net Profit: 3,455.53 USD
    • Profit Factor: 1.52
    • Equity Drawdown: 6.60%
    • Recovery Factor: 4.70
    • Total Trades: 234
    • Win Rate: 61.97%
    • Largest Loss: -157.80 USD
    • Largest Profit: 162.99 USD

  • Why This Matters

    • The drawdown profile remains controlled for a non-martingale system
    • Average win and average loss stay relatively balanced
    • The report does not depend on extreme win-rate cosmetics or hidden recovery tricks
    • The objective is durability, not a flashy curve with cliff-edge risk

Balance Curve

This balance curve is not meant to impress gamblers. It is meant to show a system that can participate, pause, recover, and continue without catastrophic behavior.

Trade Distribution View

We pay close attention to trade distribution, not just headline profit. A healthier system should show controlled losses, realistic trade frequency, and no obvious martingale-style distortion.

Year-by-Year View

The full-period report is the main reference point. These supporting snapshots help show that the result is not driven by a single lucky segment.

  • 2025 Only

    • Total Net Profit: 2,380.27 USD
    • Profit Factor: 1.41
    • Equity Drawdown: 6.29%
    • Recovery Factor: 3.36
    • Total Trades: 195
    • Win Rate: 62.56%
    • Largest Loss: -157.72 USD
    • Largest Profit: 164.35 USD

  • 2026 YTD Only

    • Total Net Profit: 849.55 USD
    • Profit Factor: 2.20
    • Equity Drawdown: 2.78%
    • Recovery Factor: 2.99
    • Total Trades: 39
    • Win Rate: 66.67%
    • Largest Loss: -110.58 USD
    • Largest Profit: 129.58 USD

Execution Stress Test

This section is not the primary baseline. It is a robustness check using simulated adverse execution conditions on the same IC Markets MT5 test basis.

  • Stress Setup

    • Broker / Test Basis: IC Markets MT5
    • Symbol: XAUUSD
    • Timeframe: M30
    • Period: January 1, 2025 to 2026 YTD
    • Mode: Standard Trend
    • Version Tag: v1.1.6-ic-candidate
    • Stress Conditions: spread 85 + random delay
    • Modeling Quality: 99% real ticks

  • 2025-2026 YTD Stress Result

    • Total Net Profit: 2,385.33 USD
    • Profit Factor: 1.25
    • Equity Drawdown: 10.48%
    • Recovery Factor: 2.14
    • Total Trades: 341
    • Largest Loss: -110.97 USD
    • Largest Profit: 149.62 USD

  • Interpretation

    • The strategy remained profitable across the full 2025-2026 YTD window under materially worse execution assumptions.
    • As expected, efficiency declined and drawdown expanded relative to the core backtest.
    • This result is presented as a stress test, not as the normal operating expectation.
    • In live deployment, the EA includes spread filtering and is not intended to actively fight poor execution conditions by design.

  • Additional Note

    2026 YTD remained especially resilient under the same simulated stress conditions, which adds confidence that the current Standard Trend candidate is not dependent on ideal fills alone.

Monte Carlo Robustness Check

This section tests whether the strategy still holds together when the trade sequence is randomized and a portion of trades is missed. It is meant to answer a practical question: does the system still look stable if reality does not arrive in the same neat order as the backtest curve?

  • Monte Carlo Setup

    • Source Report: Standard Trend baseline on IC Markets MT5
    • Period: January 1, 2025 to 2026 YTD
    • Trade Order: randomized
    • Additional Scenarios: 5% missed trades and 10% missed trades
    • Iterations: 5,000 per scenario

  • 2025-2026 YTD Monte Carlo View

    • Baseline Net Profit: 3,455.53 USD
    • Median Net Profit after 10% missed trades: 3,122.29 USD
    • Median Max Drawdown after 10% missed trades: 5.88%
    • 95th Percentile Max Drawdown: 9.66%
    • Probability of Ending Negative: 0.00%
    • Probability of Drawdown Above 10%: 4.00%

  • Why This Matters

    • The strategy does not appear highly dependent on one lucky trade order.
    • Even when 10% of trades are missed, the median outcome remains profitable.
    • Drawdown expands under randomized conditions, but still stays within a range that supports the capital-preservation narrative.
    • The probability of a negative ending outcome remained at 0% across the tested simulation set.

  • Supporting Notes

    • 2025 Only remained profitable in the Monte Carlo runs, with 0% probability of ending negative and about 5.54% probability of drawdown exceeding 10% under the 10% missed-trades scenario.
    • 2026 YTD remained especially resilient, with 0% probability of ending negative and 0% probability of drawdown exceeding 10% under the same 10% missed-trades scenario.

Performance With Context Matters

If you only want the highest possible return screenshot, this page may feel too conservative.

If you care about the shape of losses, survival across difficult periods, and realistic deployment, this is the right kind of conversation.